Wycombe 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wycombe at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wycombe vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Charlton travel to Adams Park to take on Wycombe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wycombe stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wycombe have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wycombe's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Adams Park this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Adams Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wycombe are significantly better at Adams Park than their overall form suggests.
Charlton — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wycombe 1.50 PPG, Charlton 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Wycombe, 0 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Wycombe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wycombe in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 45% versus Charlton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wycombe 49% | Charlton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 1.44 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 1.132 / defence 0.962 | Charlton attack 0.906 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.075. Data: 51 Wycombe games / 51 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wycombe 48% | Draw 29% | Charlton 24%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Charlton 4.17. Wycombe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wycombe at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wycombe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wycombe 20% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 48% | Draw 29% | Charlton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Wycombe 1.44 / Charlton 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 1.132 / def 0.962 | Charlton attack 0.906 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Wycombe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Charlton xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wycombe vs Charlton kick off?
Wycombe vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Adams Park.
What was the final score in Wycombe vs Charlton?
Wycombe 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Wycombe vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Charlton part of?
Wycombe vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 48% chance of winning, Charlton a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wycombe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wycombe and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Wycombe vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Wycombe 2W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Wycombe and Charlton in?
Wycombe (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wycombe's attack rating (1.13) and Charlton's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Wycombe's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.51
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Wycombe xG
Total xG
2.37
0.94
Charlton xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Wycombe and 0.94 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Wycombe have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 24W 13D 14L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wycombe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 19W 10D 22L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wycombe on 1.67 PPG, Charlton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wycombe have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wycombe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wycombe are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wycombe and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 24W 13D 14L in their last 51 games (1.67 PPG), while Charlton have gone 19W 10D 22L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Charlton away?
Wycombe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 2.00 PPG; Charlton away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Wycombe or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Charlton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wycombe and Charlton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2025, when Charlton won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wycombe's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wycombe
3
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Charlton?
From 10 meetings on record, Wycombe have won 3, Charlton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Wycombe.
Who has won more matches between Wycombe and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 40%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Wycombe) and 52% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wycombe play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Wycombe's recent matches and 60% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wycombe vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Wycombe's recent games and 52% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wycombe and Charlton tend to score early?
Wycombe have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wycombe and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Adams Park, Regular Season - 6, as Wycombe and Charlton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.44 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Charlton attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wycombe 48% | Draw 29% | Charlton 24%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 49%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wycombe's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.67 PPG, Charlton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.