Wigan 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 6 as Wigan welcome Stockport County to The Brick Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Wigan have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wigan have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wigan at The Brick Community Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stockport County's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stockport County are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wigan, 1 for Stockport County and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 39% versus Stockport County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 31% | Stockport County 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.36 xG and Stockport County 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.065 / defence 0.890 | Stockport County attack 1.232 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.023. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Wigan games / 51 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 42% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 31%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Stockport County 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stockport County (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 50% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 42% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Wigan 1.36 / Stockport County 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.065 / def 0.890 | Stockport County attack 1.232 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Wigan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Stockport County xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Stockport County kick off?
Wigan vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Stockport County?
Wigan 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Wigan vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Stockport County part of?
Wigan vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 42% chance of winning, Stockport County a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wigan and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stockport County?
Record (2 meetings): Wigan 0W | Draws 1 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Wigan and Stockport County in?
Wigan (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wigan's attack rating (1.06) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.72
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.48
1.12
Stockport County xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wigan and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Wigan and 1.12 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wigan come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 18D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Wigan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.82 PPG from 51 outings (26W 15D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wigan's home form reads 9W 7D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (9W 10D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Early Season
Stockport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 15W 18D 18L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 26W 15D 10L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.36 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Wigan or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Stockport County in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Stockport County runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Sep 2026, when Stockport County won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wigan's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Wigan
2
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stockport County?
From 5 meetings on record, Wigan have won 0, Stockport County have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 40%, Stockport County 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Wigan and 32% for Stockport County.
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Wigan's recent matches and 60% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Wigan's recent games and 32% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Stockport County tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Wigan and Stockport County drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.36 xG and Stockport County 1.12 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Stockport County attack 1.23 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 42% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 31%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 31%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.