Wigan 2-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wigan face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Charlton meet at DW Stadium in League One (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Wigan (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Wigan have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Wigan are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Charlton have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Wigan against 1.50 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Wigan, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2022, ended Wigan 2–1 Charlton — a Wigan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 57% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 42% | Charlton 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Wigan surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.046 / defence 0.972 | Charlton attack 0.875 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.131. Data: built from Wigan's last 14 games and Charlton's last 60.
Result probabilities: Wigan 49% | Draw 27% | Charlton 25%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.05 | Draw 3.74 | Charlton 4.08. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 40% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 7 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 October 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 49% | Draw 27% | Charlton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Wigan 1.47 / Charlton 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.046 / def 0.972 | Charlton attack 0.875 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Wigan (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Charlton xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Charlton kick off?
Wigan vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Wigan 2 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Wigan vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Charlton part of?
Wigan vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 49% chance of winning, Charlton a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wigan and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Wigan vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wigan's attack rating (1.05) and Charlton's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.88x) against Wigan's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 14 games and Charlton's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.74
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.43
0.96
Charlton xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wigan and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wigan and 0.96 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 16D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Wigan against 1.33 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Wigan's home form reads 9W 6D 13L across their last 28 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 9D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.53 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Charlton
Blended
Wigan (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Wigan vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Charlton have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Charlton away?
Wigan's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.18 PPG; Charlton away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Wigan and Charlton, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Charlton have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wigan
1
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Charlton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 2, Charlton have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wigan and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Charlton 2-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 54%, Charlton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Wigan) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wigan have failed to score in 29% of games; Charlton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Wigan's recent matches and 54% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Wigan's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Wigan's recent matches and 68% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Wigan 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Wigan 2-3 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.96 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Charlton attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 49% | Draw 27% | Charlton 25%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 42%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.12 PPG, Charlton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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