Sunderland 1-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sunderland host Rotherham at Stadium of Light in League One, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 League One matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium of Light this season.
Across all League One games this season, Rotherham have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Rotherham's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Sunderland have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sunderland, 1 for Rotherham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–5 with Rotherham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Rotherham in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Rotherham 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 61% | Rotherham 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.28 xG and Rotherham 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.387 / defence 1.081 | Rotherham attack 0.766 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.141. Sunderland carry an above-average attack strength of 1.387 — their λ of 1.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Sunderland games / 44 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 42% | Draw 32% | Rotherham 26%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Rotherham 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 70% | Rotherham 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 42% | Draw 32% | Rotherham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Sunderland 1.28 / Rotherham 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.387 / def 1.081 | Rotherham attack 0.766 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rotherham xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Rotherham kick off?
Sunderland vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Rotherham?
Sunderland 1 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is Sunderland vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Rotherham part of?
Sunderland vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 42% chance of winning, Rotherham a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sunderland and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Rotherham?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 0 | Rotherham 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Rotherham in?
Sunderland (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Rotherham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
42%
2.36
32%
3.12
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.22
0.94
Rotherham xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.94 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 23W 11D 10L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Rotherham's form line: 26W 8D 10L from 44 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.82 PPG, Rotherham on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (15W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 11W 5D 5L from 21 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.52 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 23W 11D 10L in their last 44 games (1.82 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 26W 8D 10L in their last 44 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Rotherham away?
Sunderland's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.24 PPG; Rotherham away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Rotherham in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Rotherham won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sunderland's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Rotherham?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Rotherham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Rotherham 1-1 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sunderland 52% BTTS, Rotherham 10%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sunderland) and 14% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rotherham in 67%; Rotherham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sunderland's recent matches and 10% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Sunderland's recent games and 14% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Rotherham tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland and Rotherham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland and Rotherham finished level at 1-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.28 xG and Rotherham 0.94 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.39 / defence 1.08 against Rotherham attack 0.77 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 42% | Draw 32% | Rotherham 26%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 61%, Rotherham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Rotherham's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.82 PPG, Rotherham 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.