Stockport County 1-3 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stevenage at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.50 PPG lead over Stevenage (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2025, ended 3–0 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Stevenage 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 44% | Stevenage 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 0.92 xG and Stevenage 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.924 / defence 0.999 | Stevenage attack 0.882 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.085. Data: 64 Stockport County games / 63 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 33% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 35%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Stevenage 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stockport County (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Stevenage 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 33% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Stockport County 0.92 / Stevenage 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.924 / def 0.999 | Stevenage attack 0.882 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Stevenage xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Stevenage kick off?
Stockport County vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Stockport County 1 - 3 Stevenage.
Where is Stockport County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Stevenage part of?
Stockport County vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 33% chance of winning, Stevenage a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Stockport County and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
Record (4 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.92) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.88x) against Stockport County's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.12
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.87
0.96
Stevenage xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 14.7 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.96 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 31W 19D 13L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 24W 16D 23L from 63 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Stockport County against 1.40 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.00 PPG from 31 outings (18W 8D 5L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 10W 9D 12L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.97 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 31W 19D 13L in their last 63 games (1.78 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 24W 16D 23L in their last 63 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Stevenage away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 58%, Stevenage 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Stockport County) and 26% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stevenage in 39%; Stevenage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Stockport County's recent matches and 32% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Stockport County's recent games and 26% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Stevenage tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Stockport County 1-3 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 0.92 xG and Stevenage 0.96 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 33% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 35%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 44%, Stevenage 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.78 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.