Stevenage 3-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stevenage at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Northampton travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 December 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage at The Lamex Stadium this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Northampton — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.70 (Northampton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stevenage, 3 for Northampton and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Northampton in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Northampton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 41% | Northampton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.40 xG and Northampton 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.872 / defence 1.005 | Northampton attack 0.903 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.140. Data: 23 Stevenage games / 22 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 29% | Northampton 27%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Northampton 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 60% | Northampton 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 29% | Northampton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.40 / Northampton 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.872 / def 1.005 | Northampton attack 0.903 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Northampton xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Northampton kick off?
Stevenage vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Stevenage 3 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Stevenage vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Northampton part of?
Stevenage vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 44% chance of winning, Northampton a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Northampton?
Record (5 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Northampton 3W.
What form are Stevenage and Northampton in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Northampton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.87x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.45
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Northampton xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.03 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 34W 20D 14L from 68 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 19L across 68 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.79 PPG, Northampton on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 20W 8D 5L from 33 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Northampton's away record stands at 14W 9D 10L across 33 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.32 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Northampton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 34W 20D 14L in their last 68 games (1.79 PPG), while Northampton have gone 32W 17D 19L in their last 68 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Northampton away?
Stevenage's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.06 PPG; Northampton away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Northampton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Northampton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stevenage
2
Draws
4
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Northampton?
From 10 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Northampton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Northampton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 42% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Northampton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 42% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Northampton tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Northampton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stevenage run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Northampton 3-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.40 xG and Northampton 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Northampton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Northampton attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 29% | Northampton 27%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 41%, Northampton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Northampton's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.79 PPG, Northampton 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.