Stevenage 1-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stevenage face Lincoln.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stevenage welcome Lincoln to The Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 18 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stevenage stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Stevenage have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Lincoln have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 1.50 PPG, Lincoln 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Lincoln 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 39% | Lincoln 31%). Note also that Lincoln surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Stevenage recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.15 xG and Lincoln 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.887 / defence 0.949 | Lincoln attack 0.873 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.140. Data: built from Stevenage's last 17 games and Lincoln's last 62.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 30%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.50 | Draw 3.31 | Lincoln 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 40% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 18 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Stevenage 1.15 / Lincoln 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.887 / def 0.949 | Lincoln attack 0.873 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lincoln xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Lincoln kick off?
Stevenage vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 18 November 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Stevenage vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Lincoln part of?
Stevenage vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 40% chance of winning, Lincoln a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stevenage and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Stevenage vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 17 games and Lincoln's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.31
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
Lincoln xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.94 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 18D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.37 PPG from 62 outings (20W 25D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Lincoln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 20W 6D 5L across their last 31 home games, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.08 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
Stevenage (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 31W 18D 13L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 20W 25D 17L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Lincoln away?
Stevenage's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.13 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Lincoln?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 1, Lincoln have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Stevenage 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Lincoln 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Stevenage) and 39% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Lincoln in 32%; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 42% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Stevenage's recent games and 39% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Stevenage's recent matches and 77% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Lincoln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Lincoln 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.15 xG and Lincoln 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Lincoln attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 40% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 39%, Lincoln 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lincoln's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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