Stevenage 3-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stevenage welcome Derby to The Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stevenage have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Stevenage have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stevenage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Derby in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 37% | Derby 44%). Note also that Derby surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Stevenage recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.87 xG and Derby 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.749 / defence 0.997 | Derby attack 1.283 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.102. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.283, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from Stevenage's last 15 games and Derby's last 59.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 23% | Draw 27% | Derby 50%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 4.30 | Draw 3.68 | Derby 2.02. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stevenage 40% (last 10 home games) | Derby 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Derby | Competition: League One, matchday 16 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 23% | Draw 27% | Derby 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Stevenage 0.87 / Derby 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.749 / def 0.997 | Derby attack 1.283 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Derby (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Derby xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Derby FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Derby kick off?
Stevenage vs Derby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Derby?
Stevenage 3 - 1 Derby.
Where is Stevenage vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Derby part of?
Stevenage vs Derby is a League One fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 23% chance of winning, Derby a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stevenage and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Stevenage vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 15 games and Derby's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
23%
4.30
27%
3.68
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.28
1.41
Derby xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
6%
17.59
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.4 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.41 for Derby, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 28W 18D 13L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 27W 16D 16L from 59 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.73 PPG, Derby on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 29 home games (18W 6D 5L).
On the road, Derby have gone 12W 8D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.47 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Derby
Blended
Stevenage (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Stevenage vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Derby in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 28W 18D 13L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Derby have gone 27W 16D 16L in their last 59 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Derby away?
Stevenage's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.07 PPG; Derby away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stevenage
0
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Derby?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Derby 1-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 38%, Derby 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stevenage) and 45% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Derby in 31%; Derby in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stevenage's recent games and 45% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Stevenage's recent matches and 66% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Derby 3-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.87 xG and Derby 1.41 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against Derby attack 1.28 / defence 0.91, drawn from 15/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 23% | Draw 27% | Derby 50%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 37%, Derby 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.73 PPG, Derby 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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