Stevenage 1-0 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Blackpool in League One, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Stevenage's home record at Lamex Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium.
Blackpool (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Blackpool's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Stevenage, 1.50 for Blackpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Stevenage, 2 for Blackpool and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Blackpool half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Blackpool 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Blackpool 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.46 xG and Blackpool 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.834 / defence 0.754 | Blackpool attack 0.871 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.098. Blackpool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 85 Stevenage games / 87 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 55% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 18%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Blackpool 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 50% | Blackpool 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 55% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Stevenage 1.46 / Blackpool 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.834 / def 0.754 | Blackpool attack 0.871 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Blackpool xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Blackpool kick off?
Stevenage vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Blackpool.
Where is Stevenage vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Blackpool part of?
Stevenage vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 55% chance of winning, Blackpool a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stevenage and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Record (5 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 1 | Blackpool 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in?
Stevenage (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Blackpool (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.83x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.87x) against Stevenage's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 85/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.75
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.18
0.72
Blackpool xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
4%
23.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.72 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 32W 22D 31L from 85 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 30W 25D 30L across 85 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Stevenage against 1.35 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 20W 11D 11L from 42 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 13W 9D 20L across 42 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.40 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Blackpool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 32W 22D 31L in their last 85 games (1.39 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 30W 25D 30L in their last 85 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Blackpool away?
Stevenage's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.69 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Blackpool in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stevenage go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won 3-0 on 14 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stevenage
1
Draws
2
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Blackpool have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Blackpool.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 45%, Blackpool 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stevenage) and 55% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Blackpool in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 55% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Blackpool tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Blackpool 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Blackpool 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.46 xG and Blackpool 0.72 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.83 / defence 0.75 against Blackpool attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 85/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 55% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 18%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Blackpool 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Blackpool's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.39 PPG, Blackpool 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.