Shrewsbury 0-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Wigan travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shrewsbury stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shrewsbury at The Croud Meadow this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at The Croud Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Wigan — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wigan away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wigan are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shrewsbury register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wigan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Wigan have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Shrewsbury.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Wigan winning.
It is worth noting that Wigan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Wigan trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 40% versus Wigan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Wigan 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.43 xG and Wigan 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.846 / defence 1.077 | Wigan attack 1.070 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Wigan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 78 Shrewsbury games / 32 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 25% | Wigan 36%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Wigan 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wigan (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 60% | Wigan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 25% | Wigan 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Shrewsbury 1.43 / Wigan 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.846 / def 1.077 | Wigan attack 1.070 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Wigan xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Wigan kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Wigan part of?
Shrewsbury vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 39% chance of winning, Wigan a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shrewsbury and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
Record (3 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Wigan 3W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Wigan in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Wigan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.96
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.80
1.38
Wigan xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.38 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 27W 13D 38L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 23W 21D 34L from 78 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.21 PPG, Wigan on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.51 PPG from 39 outings (18W 5D 16L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 9W 13D 17L from 39 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.08 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Wigan in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 27W 13D 38L in their last 78 games (1.21 PPG), while Wigan have gone 23W 21D 34L in their last 78 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Wigan away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.51 PPG; Wigan away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Wigan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Wigan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
5
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Wigan have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 49%, Wigan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shrewsbury) and 44% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Shrewsbury's games and 67% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shrewsbury vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 44% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Wigan tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Wigan in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.43 xG and Wigan 1.38 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Wigan attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 78/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 25% | Wigan 36%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Wigan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Wigan 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wigan's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.21 PPG, Wigan 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wigan win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Wigan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.