Shrewsbury 0-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 39%, yet in-form Wigan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wigan travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury in League One (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shrewsbury stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shrewsbury at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wigan — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wigan away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wigan are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Shrewsbury's games and 70% of Wigan's (from Shrewsbury's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Wigan have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Shrewsbury. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Shrewsbury 0–2 Wigan — a Wigan win.
Wigan have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Wigan trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 40% versus Wigan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Wigan 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.43 xG and Wigan 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.846 / defence 1.077 | Wigan attack 1.070 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Wigan's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shrewsbury's projected output up. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 78 games and Wigan's last 32.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 25% | Wigan 36%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.59 | Draw 3.96 | Wigan 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wigan (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shrewsbury's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 60% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 25% | Wigan 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shrewsbury 1.43 / Wigan 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.846 / def 1.077 | Wigan attack 1.070 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Wigan xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Shrewsbury vs Wigan kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Wigan part of?
Shrewsbury vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 39% chance of winning, Wigan a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shrewsbury and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shrewsbury vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shrewsbury's last 78 games and Wigan's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.96
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.80
1.38
Wigan xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shrewsbury vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.38 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 27W 13D 38L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 23W 21D 34L from 78 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.21 PPG, Wigan on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.51 PPG from their last 39 home games (18W 5D 16L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 9W 13D 17L from their last 39 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.08 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Shrewsbury (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Shrewsbury vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Shrewsbury and Wigan in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 27W 13D 38L in their last 78 games (1.21 PPG), while Wigan have gone 23W 21D 34L in their last 78 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Wigan away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.51 PPG; Wigan away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Apr 2022, when Wigan won Shrewsbury 0-3 Wigan.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
5
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Shrewsbury vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shrewsbury have won 0, Wigan have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Shrewsbury 0-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 49%, Wigan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shrewsbury) and 44% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shrewsbury and Wigan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Shrewsbury's games and 67% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shrewsbury and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 44% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 85% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.43 xG and Wigan 1.38 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Wigan attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 78/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 25% | Wigan 36%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Wigan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Wigan 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wigan's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.21 PPG, Wigan 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wigan win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Wigan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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