Shrewsbury 0-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 39%, yet in-form Plymouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 4 as Shrewsbury welcome Plymouth to Montgomery Waters Meadow. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shrewsbury — All Games: 0W 0D 3L from 3 League One outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plymouth — 1.33 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Shrewsbury 0% | Plymouth 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shrewsbury 0% | Plymouth 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.99 xG and Plymouth 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.803 / defence 1.156 | Plymouth attack 0.706 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 0.975. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Shrewsbury games / 3 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 33% | Plymouth 28%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Plymouth 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Plymouth's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shrewsbury are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plymouth (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 0% | Plymouth 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 33% | Plymouth 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Shrewsbury 0.99 / Plymouth 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.803 / def 1.156 | Plymouth attack 0.706 / def 1.296 | league avg home 0.953 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Plymouth xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Plymouth kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Shrewsbury 0 - 3 Plymouth.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Plymouth part of?
Shrewsbury vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 39% chance of winning, Plymouth a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shrewsbury and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shrewsbury and Plymouth in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
39%
2.57
33%
3.05
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
1.79
0.80
Plymouth xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 0.80 for Plymouth, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shrewsbury come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shrewsbury have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Shrewsbury or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Plymouth in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Plymouth won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Shrewsbury 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Plymouth see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shrewsbury 0% BTTS, Plymouth 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Shrewsbury and 0% for Plymouth.
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 33%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 100% of games; Plymouth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 33% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 0% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Plymouth tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Shrewsbury 0-3 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.99 xG and Plymouth 0.80 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Plymouth attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 39% | Draw 33% | Plymouth 28%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 0%, Plymouth 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.