Shrewsbury 1-4 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Peterborough (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shrewsbury face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Peterborough make the trip to The Croud Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shrewsbury have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shrewsbury have posted 1W 2D 7L at The Croud Meadow — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Peterborough are 0.70 PPG clear of Shrewsbury in recent League One fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Peterborough, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Peterborough winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Peterborough have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 36% versus Peterborough 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 38% | Peterborough 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.23 xG and Peterborough 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.876 / defence 1.096 | Peterborough attack 1.042 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.186. Data: 47 Shrewsbury games / 47 Peterborough games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 40%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Shrewsbury 40% | Peterborough 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Shrewsbury 1.23 / Peterborough 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.876 / def 1.096 | Peterborough attack 1.042 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Peterborough xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Peterborough kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Peterborough kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Shrewsbury 1 - 4 Peterborough.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Peterborough part of?
Shrewsbury vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 34% chance of winning, Peterborough a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shrewsbury and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Peterborough?
Record (4 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 4W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Peterborough in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.88x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.04x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.78
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.58
1.35
Peterborough xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.35 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 13W 9D 25L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Peterborough's form line: 23W 10D 14L from 47 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (8W 3D 12L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 11W 4D 8L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.87 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 62%.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 13W 9D 25L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 23W 10D 14L in their last 47 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.17 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 0-3 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
6
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Peterborough have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 39%, Peterborough 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shrewsbury) and 56% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 61% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 56% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Peterborough tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Shrewsbury 1-4 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.23 xG and Peterborough 1.35 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Peterborough attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 40%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 38%, Peterborough 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.