Shrewsbury 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 20 as Shrewsbury welcome Charlton to Montgomery Waters Meadow. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Montgomery Waters Meadow this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charlton — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in League One this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shrewsbury register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Charlton in 78% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shrewsbury 61% and Charlton 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Charlton 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.21 xG and Charlton 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.941 / defence 1.067 | Charlton attack 0.848 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.324. Data: 18 Shrewsbury games / 19 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 28% | Charlton 36%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Shrewsbury 67% | Charlton 78% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 28% | Charlton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Shrewsbury 1.21 / Charlton 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.941 / def 1.067 | Charlton attack 0.848 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Charlton xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Charlton kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Shrewsbury 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Charlton part of?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 36% chance of winning, Charlton a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shrewsbury and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.94x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.60
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.41
1.20
Charlton xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.20 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 4W 4D 10L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 6W 4D 8L from 18 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 0.89 PPG, Charlton on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shrewsbury have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Charlton in 67%.
Last 18 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 games (0.89 PPG), while Charlton have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Charlton away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.56 PPG; Charlton away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shrewsbury at 67%, Charlton at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Shrewsbury and 67% for Charlton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shrewsbury's games and 78% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shrewsbury vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Shrewsbury's matches and 67% of Charlton's.
Do Shrewsbury and Charlton tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Charlton in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shrewsbury edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Charlton 1-0 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.21 xG and Charlton 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 28% | Charlton 36%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Charlton 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Charlton's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.89 PPG, Charlton 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.