Shrewsbury 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 38%, yet in-form Charlton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Shrewsbury welcome Charlton to The Croud Meadow in League One (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Charlton — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Charlton's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Shrewsbury have won 1, Charlton 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Shrewsbury 1–1 Charlton — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 35% versus Charlton 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 41% | Charlton 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shrewsbury surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.048 / defence 1.186 | Charlton attack 0.900 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.171. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 51 games and Charlton's last 51.

Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 27% | Charlton 35%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.60 | Draw 3.77 | Charlton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 40% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 70% (last 10 away games).

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