Shrewsbury 0-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shrewsbury and Accrington ST meet at Montgomery Waters Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shrewsbury have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shrewsbury at Montgomery Waters Meadow this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Accrington ST (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Shrewsbury, 1.20 for Accrington ST — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shrewsbury, 1 for Accrington ST and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 43% versus Accrington ST 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 38% | Accrington ST 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.67 xG and Accrington ST 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.000 / defence 1.020 | Accrington ST attack 0.954 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.169. Data: 47 Shrewsbury games / 47 Accrington ST games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 49% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 25%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Accrington ST 4.00. Shrewsbury hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shrewsbury are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 50% | Accrington ST 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 49% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Shrewsbury 1.67 / Accrington ST 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 1.000 / def 1.020 | Accrington ST attack 0.954 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Accrington ST xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST part of?
Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 49% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shrewsbury and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Accrington ST?
Record (2 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Accrington ST in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.95x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.81
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.81
1.14
Accrington ST xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.14 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 15D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.32 PPG from 47 outings (17W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.32 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shrewsbury's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (5W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 12W 15D 20L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Accrington ST away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.48 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Accrington ST have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Accrington ST 0-2 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 52%, Accrington ST 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Shrewsbury) and 56% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 26% of games; Accrington ST in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 44% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 56% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.67 xG and Accrington ST 1.14 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Accrington ST attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 49% | Draw 26% | Accrington ST 25%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 38%, Accrington ST 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.09 PPG, Accrington ST 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.