Plymouth 1-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Stockport County at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Plymouth haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 2D 2L at Home Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stockport County haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Stockport County's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plymouth at 2.10 PPG versus Stockport County's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 1, Stockport County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Stockport County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 59% | Stockport County 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.55 xG and Stockport County 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.054 / defence 1.038 | Stockport County attack 1.075 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.240. Data: 46 Plymouth games / 46 Stockport County games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 34%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Stockport County 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 80% | Stockport County 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Plymouth 1.55 / Stockport County 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.054 / def 1.038 | Stockport County attack 1.075 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Stockport County xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Stockport County kick off?
Plymouth vs Stockport County kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Plymouth 1 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Plymouth vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Stockport County part of?
Plymouth vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 41% chance of winning, Stockport County a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plymouth and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stockport County?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Stockport County in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.05) and Stockport County's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
41%
2.41
25%
4.08
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.93
1.38
Stockport County xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.38 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 22W 7D 17L from 46 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. Plymouth haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 14L across 46 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. Stockport County haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.59 PPG, Stockport County on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 10W 4D 9L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 9W 6D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Pre-Season
Stockport County
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 22W 7D 17L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Stockport County away?
Plymouth's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.48 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Stockport County runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plymouth's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stockport County?
From 3 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Plymouth 1-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 61%, Stockport County 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 56% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Plymouth's games and 56% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Plymouth's matches and 56% of Stockport County's.
Do Plymouth and Stockport County tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Plymouth 1-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.55 xG and Stockport County 1.38 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Stockport County attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 41% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 34%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 59%, Stockport County 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.59 PPG, Stockport County 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.