Plymouth 2-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Plymouth (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charlton away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Plymouth against 1.60 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Plymouth 1W, Charlton 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2022, ended 1–5 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 49% versus Charlton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Charlton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.60 xG and Charlton 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.321 / defence 0.918 | Charlton attack 0.913 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.082. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 79 Plymouth games / 79 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 4.76. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | Charlton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Plymouth 1.60 / Charlton 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.321 / def 0.918 | Charlton attack 0.913 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Charlton xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Charlton kick off?
Plymouth vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Charlton?
Plymouth 2 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Plymouth vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Charlton part of?
Plymouth vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 53% chance of winning, Charlton a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Plymouth and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Charlton?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Charlton in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.32) and Charlton's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.91x) against Plymouth's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.78
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.51
0.91
Charlton xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.91 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 79 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 43W 19D 17L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 27W 19D 33L from 79 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.28 PPG from 39 outings (28W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charlton have gone 11W 10D 18L from 39 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.27 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Charlton in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 43W 19D 17L in their last 79 games (1.87 PPG), while Charlton have gone 27W 19D 33L in their last 79 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Charlton away?
Plymouth's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.28 PPG; Charlton away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Charlton in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 5-1 on 16 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Charlton have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Plymouth 2-0 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 41%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Plymouth) and 49% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Plymouth's recent matches and 59% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Plymouth's recent games and 49% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Charlton tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Charlton 2-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.60 xG and Charlton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.32 / defence 0.92 against Charlton attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 53% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.