Plymouth 3-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 38%, yet in-form Plymouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Bolton at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 League One matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 4W 3D 0L from 7 home games — 2.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.43 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Plymouth are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 62% versus Bolton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | Bolton 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.30 xG and Bolton 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.022 / defence 0.994 | Bolton attack 1.061 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.292. Data: 13 Plymouth games / 13 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 36% | Draw 26% | Bolton 38%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Bolton 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plymouth (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 71% | Bolton 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 36% | Draw 26% | Bolton 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Plymouth 1.30 / Bolton 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.022 / def 0.994 | Bolton attack 1.061 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Bolton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bolton xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Bolton kick off?
Plymouth vs Bolton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Bolton?
Plymouth 3 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Plymouth vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Bolton part of?
Plymouth vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 36% chance of winning, Bolton a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plymouth and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bolton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Bolton in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Bolton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bolton's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.85
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
Bolton xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.36 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Plymouth have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 7W 5D 1L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bolton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (4W 3D 0L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Bolton in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 7W 5D 1L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while Bolton have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Bolton away?
Plymouth's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.14 PPG; Bolton away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bolton in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bolton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Plymouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bolton?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 3, Bolton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Plymouth 1-2 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Bolton?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 71%, Bolton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Plymouth) and 43% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Plymouth's games and 43% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Plymouth's recent games and 43% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Bolton tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Bolton in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bolton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Bolton 3-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.30 xG and Bolton 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bolton landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Bolton attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 36% | Draw 26% | Bolton 38%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Bolton 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.