Peterborough 4-0 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Sheffield Wednesday in League One, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weston Homes Stadium this season.
Sheffield Wednesday (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Sheffield Wednesday and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Sheffield Wednesday winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (92 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sheffield Wednesday — key trading statistics (92 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 42% versus Sheffield Wednesday 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Sheffield Wednesday 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.09 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.889 / defence 1.143 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.155 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.158. Data: 46 Peterborough games / 92 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 27% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Wednesday 47%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sheffield Wednesday 2.13. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 27% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Wednesday 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Peterborough 1.09 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.889 / def 1.143 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.155 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Sheffield Wednesday xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Peterborough 4 - 0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 27% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday?
Record (2 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Wednesday 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sheffield Wednesday's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (1.16x) against Peterborough's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 46/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
27%
3.71
26%
3.86
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.62
1.53
Sheffield Wednesday xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
17.09
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.53 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough come into this having played 92 games, going 33W 15D 44L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Sheffield Wednesday sit at 1.93 PPG from 92 outings (51W 25D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Sheffield Wednesday carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Peterborough's home form reads 19W 11D 16L across 46 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Wednesday have taken 1.59 points per game from 46 outings (20W 13D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.72 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 92 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 33W 15D 44L in their last 92 games (1.24 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 51W 25D 16L in their last 92 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Sheffield Wednesday's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.48 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 5-1 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 41%, Sheffield Wednesday 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Peterborough) and 44% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday in 35%; Peterborough have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Peterborough's recent matches and 48% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Peterborough's recent games and 44% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.09 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.53 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sheffield Wednesday landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 27% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Wednesday 47%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Sheffield Wednesday 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.