Peterborough 1-3 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Peterborough host Carlisle at Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have gone 5W 0D 5L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Peterborough have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Carlisle stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Carlisle have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Peterborough have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Peterborough's games and 60% of Carlisle's (from Peterborough's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Peterborough, 0 for Carlisle and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Peterborough 1–1 Carlisle — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Peterborough trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Carlisle trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 51% versus Carlisle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 63% | Carlisle 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.64 xG and Carlisle 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.429 / defence 1.051 | Carlisle attack 0.776 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.429 — their 2.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.392 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Peterborough's projected output up. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Peterborough's last 84 games and Carlisle's last 39.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 73% | Draw 16% | Carlisle 11%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.37 | Draw 6.44 | Carlisle 8.76. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (73%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 80% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, matchday 41 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 73% | Draw 16% | Carlisle 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Peterborough 2.64 / Carlisle 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.429 / def 1.051 | Carlisle attack 0.776 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Carlisle xG
58%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Carlisle FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Carlisle kick off?
Peterborough vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Carlisle?
Peterborough 1 - 3 Carlisle.
Where is Peterborough vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Carlisle part of?
Peterborough vs Carlisle is a League One fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 73% chance of winning, Carlisle a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Peterborough and Carlisle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.64. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 84 games and Carlisle's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.44
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.61
0.97
Carlisle xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.44
16%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
7%
14.04
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
1%
122.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Carlisle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.97 for Carlisle, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Carlisle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough come into this having played 86 games, going 46W 13D 27L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Carlisle sit at 1.16 PPG from 86 outings (25W 25D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Peterborough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Carlisle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Peterborough's home form reads 24W 8D 10L across their last 42 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Carlisle have taken 1.02 points per game from their last 42 away games (11W 10D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Carlisle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Carlisle Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 46W 13D 27L in their last 86 games (1.76 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 25W 25D 36L in their last 86 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Carlisle away?
Peterborough's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.90 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.02 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Carlisle in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Peterborough
1
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Carlisle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Carlisle?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 0, Carlisle have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Carlisle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2024: Peterborough 1-3 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 45%, Carlisle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Peterborough) and 45% (Carlisle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Carlisle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Carlisle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Carlisle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Peterborough's recent matches and 50% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Carlisle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Peterborough's matches and 45% of Carlisle's.
Do Peterborough and Carlisle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Peterborough's recent matches and 69% of Carlisle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carlisle cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Peterborough 1-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.64 xG and Carlisle 0.97 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Carlisle outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.43 / defence 1.05 against Carlisle attack 0.78 / defence 1.39, drawn from 84/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 73% | Draw 16% | Carlisle 11%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Carlisle 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Carlisle's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.98 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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