Peterborough 6-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Peterborough face Cambridge United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Peterborough's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambridge United have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cambridge United's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Peterborough against 1.00 for Cambridge United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Cambridge United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Peterborough 1–0 Cambridge United — a Peterborough win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 66% versus Cambridge United 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 69% | Cambridge United 36%). Note also that Cambridge United surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Peterborough recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.97 xG and Cambridge United 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.405 / defence 1.301 | Cambridge United attack 0.810 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.188. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.405 — their 1.97 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cambridge United's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 60 games and Cambridge United's last 58.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 54% | Draw 22% | Cambridge United 24%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.85 | Draw 4.59 | Cambridge United 4.16. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Peterborough 80% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 15 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 54% | Draw 22% | Cambridge United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Peterborough 1.97 / Cambridge United 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.405 / def 1.301 | Cambridge United attack 0.810 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cambridge United xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Cambridge United kick off?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Peterborough 6 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Peterborough vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cambridge United part of?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 54% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Peterborough and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.41) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.81x) against Peterborough's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 60 games and Cambridge United's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.59
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.23
1.25
Cambridge United xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
3%
29.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.25 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 27W 13D 18L from 58 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 30L across 58 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Peterborough by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 15W 8D 6L from their last 29 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 5W 5D 19L across their last 29 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.86 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
Peterborough (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 27W 13D 18L in their last 58 games (1.62 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 15W 13D 30L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cambridge United away?
Peterborough's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.83 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Peterborough have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won Peterborough 5-0 Cambridge United on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 5, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 66%, Cambridge United 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Peterborough) and 45% (Cambridge United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Peterborough's recent matches and 31% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Peterborough's matches and 45% of Cambridge United's.
Do Peterborough and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Peterborough's recent matches and 72% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Cambridge United 6-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.97 xG and Cambridge United 1.25 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.41 / defence 1.30 against Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 54% | Draw 22% | Cambridge United 24%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, Cambridge United 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Cambridge United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.31 average — above their attacking norm. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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