Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 44. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burton Albion are 0.50 PPG clear of Peterborough in recent League One fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Peterborough have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Burton Albion managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Peterborough winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Peterborough and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Burton Albion 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.73 xG and Burton Albion 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.300 / defence 1.149 | Burton Albion attack 0.781 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.176. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 88 Peterborough games / 89 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Burton Albion 4.35. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Peterborough dominate the H2H record, yet Burton Albion are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burton Albion (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Peterborough 1.73 / Burton Albion 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.300 / def 1.149 | Burton Albion attack 0.781 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Burton Albion xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Burton Albion kick off?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Peterborough vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Burton Albion part of?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 53% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Peterborough and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Record (7 meetings): Peterborough 4W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.30) and Burton Albion's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.78x) against Peterborough's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 88/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.21
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.78
1.05
Burton Albion xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
24.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.05 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 88 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 28W 18D 42L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 24W 26D 38L from 88 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Peterborough against 1.11 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.37 PPG from 43 outings (16W 11D 16L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 9W 15D 19L from 43 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 28W 18D 42L in their last 88 games (1.16 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 24W 26D 38L in their last 88 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Burton Albion away?
Peterborough's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.37 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.98 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Peterborough
3
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 4, Burton Albion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 44% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 30%; Peterborough have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Peterborough's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 44% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Peterborough and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.73 xG and Burton Albion 1.05 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.30 / defence 1.15 against Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 88/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.16 PPG, Burton Albion 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.