Peterborough 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Peterborough (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Peterborough face Burton Albion.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Peterborough (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Peterborough's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Burton Albion have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Burton Albion have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Peterborough. A 0.70 PPG lead over Burton Albion (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Peterborough's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Burton Albion in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Peterborough, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Burton Albion — Burton Albion have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Peterborough 3–1 Burton Albion — a Peterborough win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Peterborough and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 66% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 69% | Burton Albion 50%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Peterborough recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.44 xG and Burton Albion 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.495 / defence 1.342 | Burton Albion attack 0.895 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.105. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.495 — their 2.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Peterborough's projected output up. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 62 games and Burton Albion's last 62.

Result probabilities: Peterborough 62% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 20%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.61 | Draw 5.40 | Burton Albion 5.12. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.44 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 80% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games).

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