Peterborough 3-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weston Homes Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Peterborough against 1.00 for Accrington ST. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 47% versus Accrington ST 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 62% | Accrington ST 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.79 xG and Accrington ST 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.269 / defence 0.773 | Accrington ST attack 0.745 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.232. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Peterborough's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Peterborough games / 60 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 63% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 14%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Accrington ST 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 30% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 63% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 42% | xG Peterborough 1.79 / Accrington ST 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.269 / def 0.773 | Accrington ST attack 0.745 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Accrington ST xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Accrington ST kick off?
Peterborough vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Accrington ST?
Peterborough 3 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Peterborough vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Accrington ST part of?
Peterborough vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 63% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Peterborough and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Accrington ST in?
Peterborough (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.27x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.74x) against Peterborough's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 15/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.46
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.50
0.71
Accrington ST xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
42.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.71 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 17W 11D 32L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST's form line: 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Peterborough against 1.28 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 7W 5D 17L from 29 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.28 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 17W 11D 32L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Accrington ST away?
Peterborough's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.31 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Accrington ST?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Accrington ST 1-2 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Accrington ST?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 41%, Accrington ST 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Peterborough) and 52% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 38% of games; Accrington ST in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Peterborough's recent matches and 41% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Peterborough's recent games and 52% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Accrington ST 3-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.79 xG and Accrington ST 0.71 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.27 / defence 0.77 against Accrington ST attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 63% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 14%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 62%, Accrington ST 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.03 PPG, Accrington ST 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.