Northampton 1-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Peterborough at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Northampton have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Peterborough — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Northampton, 2 for Peterborough and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Peterborough trading profile (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Peterborough 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.13 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.782 / defence 1.127 | Peterborough attack 1.015 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.140. Northampton's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 80 Northampton games / 80 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Peterborough 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Northampton 70% | Peterborough 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Northampton 1.13 / Peterborough 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.782 / def 1.127 | Peterborough attack 1.015 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Peterborough xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Peterborough kick off?
Northampton vs Peterborough kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Northampton 1 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Northampton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Peterborough part of?
Northampton vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 32% chance of winning, Peterborough a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Northampton and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
Record (5 meetings): Northampton 3W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in?
Northampton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.78) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.66
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.30
Peterborough xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Northampton and 1.30 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 80 games, going 21W 22D 37L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.20 PPG from 80 outings (27W 15D 38L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.06 PPG, Peterborough on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 13W 10D 17L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.02 points per game from 40 outings (12W 5D 23L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 61%.
Last 80 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 22D 37L in their last 80 games (1.06 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 27W 15D 38L in their last 80 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Peterborough away?
Northampton's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.23 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.02 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Peterborough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Peterborough have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Peterborough?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 48%, Peterborough 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 62% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Northampton's games and 62% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Northampton vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 62% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Peterborough tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Northampton and Peterborough drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.13 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against Peterborough attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.06 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.