Northampton 3-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Northampton welcome Crawley Town to Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Northampton — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Crawley Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Northampton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Northampton, 1 for Crawley Town and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Northampton 1–0 Crawley Town — a Northampton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 54% versus Crawley Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Crawley Town 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Northampton surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Crawley Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.38 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.864 / defence 1.068 | Crawley Town attack 0.739 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.222. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Northampton's projected output up. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Northampton's last 57 games and Crawley Town's last 12.
Result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.16 | Draw 3.66 | Crawley Town 3.80. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches — though recent form (Northampton's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Northampton 40% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, matchday 14 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Northampton 1.38 / Crawley Town 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.864 / def 1.068 | Crawley Town attack 0.739 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Northampton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Crawley Town xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Crawley Town kick off?
Northampton vs Crawley Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Northampton 3 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Northampton vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Crawley Town part of?
Northampton vs Crawley Town is a League One fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Northampton and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Northampton vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.86) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 57 games and Crawley Town's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.66
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.34
0.96
Crawley Town xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Northampton and 0.96 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 12D 25L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.44 PPG from 57 outings (25W 7D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.26 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 28 away games (12W 3D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
Northampton (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Northampton vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 25W 7D 25L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Crawley Town away?
Northampton's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.61 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won Northampton 3-0 Crawley Town.
Northampton's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Northampton
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Northampton 1-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 50%, Crawley Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Northampton) and 57% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crawley Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Northampton's recent matches and 54% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Northampton's recent games and 57% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Northampton's recent matches and 75% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Northampton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Crawley Town 3-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.38 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Crawley Town attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 57/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 26%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.26 PPG, Crawley Town 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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