Northampton 0-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Northampton at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Northampton face Cambridge United.

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Analysis & Preview

Cambridge United travel to Sixfields Stadium to take on Northampton in League One (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Northampton have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Northampton at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cambridge United stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Northampton 1.20 PPG, Cambridge United 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Northampton, 0 for Cambridge United and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Northampton 1–1 Cambridge United — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Northampton in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Cambridge United in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 55% versus Cambridge United 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 52% | Cambridge United 37%). Note also that Cambridge United surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Northampton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.982 / defence 1.049 | Cambridge United attack 0.844 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.120. Cambridge United's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Northampton's projected output up. Data: built from Northampton's last 61 games and Cambridge United's last 60.

Result probabilities: Northampton 56% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 20%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.79 | Draw 4.16 | Cambridge United 4.93. The model has a clear lean to Northampton (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Northampton 40% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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