Northampton 0-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 37 as Northampton welcome Burton Albion to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Northampton 0.60 PPG, Burton Albion 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Northampton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Burton Albion in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Northampton, 1 for Burton Albion and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 1–5 with Burton Albion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Burton Albion 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.26 xG and Burton Albion 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.790 / defence 1.081 | Burton Albion attack 0.852 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.164. Northampton's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 82 Northampton games / 82 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 31%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Burton Albion 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Northampton 70% | Burton Albion 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Northampton 1.26 / Burton Albion 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.790 / def 1.081 | Burton Albion attack 0.852 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Northampton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Burton Albion xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Northampton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Northampton 0 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Northampton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Burton Albion part of?
Northampton vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 41% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Northampton and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Record (5 meetings): Northampton 3W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Northampton and Burton Albion in?
Northampton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.79) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.58
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.33
1.07
Burton Albion xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Northampton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Northampton and 1.07 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 82 games, going 21W 23D 38L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.06 PPG from 82 outings (21W 24D 37L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.05 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 13W 11D 17L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.95 points per game from 41 outings (8W 15D 18L).
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.07 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 23D 38L in their last 82 games (1.05 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 21W 24D 37L in their last 82 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Burton Albion away?
Northampton's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.22 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Burton Albion have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2025, when Burton Albion won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Northampton 0-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 49%, Burton Albion 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 49% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 39% of games; Burton Albion in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Northampton's recent matches and 51% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 49% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Northampton 0-2 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.26 xG and Burton Albion 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burton Albion outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Burton Albion attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 41% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 31%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.05 PPG, Burton Albion 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.