Mansfield Town 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 40 sees Charlton travel to One Call Stadium to take on Mansfield Town. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 April 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mansfield Town at One Call Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Charlton away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Charlton's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Mansfield Town's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mansfield Town, 0 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play and half-time data (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mansfield Town 62% and Charlton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 55% | Charlton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 0.86 xG and Charlton 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.704 / defence 1.151 | Charlton attack 0.978 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.111. Mansfield Town's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Mansfield Town games / 85 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 30% | Charlton 45%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 2.22. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 50% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 30% | Charlton 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Mansfield Town 0.86 / Charlton 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.704 / def 1.151 | Charlton attack 0.978 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Charlton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Charlton xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Charlton kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Charlton?
Mansfield Town 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Charlton part of?
Mansfield Town vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 25% chance of winning, Charlton a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mansfield Town and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Mansfield Town 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Charlton in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mansfield Town's attack rating (0.70) and Charlton's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
25%
4.01
30%
3.30
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.11
1.25
Charlton xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.25 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 37W 22D 25L from 84 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 30W 29D 25L across 84 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mansfield Town on 1.58 PPG, Charlton on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 19W 11D 11L from 41 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 10W 16D 15L across 41 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 84 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Charlton in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 37W 22D 25L in their last 84 games (1.58 PPG), while Charlton have gone 30W 29D 25L in their last 84 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Charlton away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.66 PPG; Charlton away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mansfield Town and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when Mansfield Town 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 56%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Mansfield Town) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mansfield Town's games and 58% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Charlton tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Charlton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Mansfield Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 0.86 xG and Charlton 1.25 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 30% | Charlton 45%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Charlton 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.58 PPG, Charlton 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.