Leicester 1-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power Stadium plays host to Leicester versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Leicester's overall League One record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Leicester have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Power Stadium, Leicester have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Leicester, 1.20 for Burton Albion — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Leicester have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burton Albion in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Leicester half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 72% and Burton Albion 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 53% | Burton Albion 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Burton Albion attack 0.924 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.291. Data: 1 Leicester games / 47 Burton Albion games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Leicester 32% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 41%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 60% | Burton Albion 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 32% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Leicester 1.17 / Burton Albion 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Burton Albion attack 0.924 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Burton Albion xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Burton Albion kick off?
Leicester vs Burton Albion kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Burton Albion?
Leicester 1 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Leicester vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Burton Albion part of?
Leicester vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 32% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Leicester and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Burton Albion in?
Leicester (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Leicester's attack rating (0.87) and Burton Albion's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.92x) against Leicester's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (1/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.76
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.54
1.37
Burton Albion xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.34
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Leicester and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Leicester and 1.37 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 17D 18L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.17 PPG from 47 outings (13W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Leicester against 1.17 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Leicester's home form reads 7W 7D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (4W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Burton Albion away?
Leicester's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.22 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Burton Albion?
From 1 meetings on record, Leicester have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Leicester 1-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 70%, Burton Albion 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Leicester) and 48% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Leicester's games and 56% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Leicester's recent games and 48% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Leicester 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Leicester 1-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.37 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 32% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 41%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 53%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.13 PPG, Burton Albion 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.