Ipswich 3-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 34 as Ipswich welcome Burton Albion to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ipswich have posted 7W 2D 1L at Portman Road — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ipswich are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 53% versus Burton Albion 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 53% | Burton Albion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.44 xG and Burton Albion 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.003 / defence 1.049 | Burton Albion attack 0.823 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.223. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Ipswich games / 32 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 46% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 27%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 3.70. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Ipswich 50% | Burton Albion 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 46% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ipswich 1.44 / Burton Albion 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.003 / def 1.049 | Burton Albion attack 0.823 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Burton Albion xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Burton Albion kick off?
Ipswich vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Ipswich 3 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Ipswich vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Burton Albion part of?
Ipswich vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 46% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ipswich and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Burton Albion in?
Ipswich (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.00) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.71
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.49
1.05
Burton Albion xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.05 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 13W 9D 10L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 13L across 32 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.50 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 32 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 7D 13L in their last 32 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Burton Albion away?
Ipswich's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.80 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2023, when Ipswich won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
0
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Burton Albion have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Ipswich 4-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Burton Albion?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 67%, Burton Albion 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ipswich) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ipswich's games and 53% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ipswich's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Burton Albion 3-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.44 xG and Burton Albion 1.05 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Burton Albion attack 0.82 / defence 1.30, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 46% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 27%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 53%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.50 PPG, Burton Albion 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.