Gillingham 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Priestfield Stadium plays host to Gillingham versus Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Gillingham (all games): 1W 3D 3L across 7 League One fixtures this term — 0.86 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gillingham have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 League One outings this season: 1W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Charlton have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.86 PPG for Gillingham against 0.57 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gillingham register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Charlton in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gillingham — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Charlton — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gillingham 86% and Charlton 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 43% | Charlton 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.34 xG and Charlton 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.955 / defence 1.399 | Charlton attack 0.863 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.173. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Gillingham games / 7 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 36% | Draw 25% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 100% | Charlton 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 36% | Draw 25% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Gillingham 1.34 / Charlton 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.955 / def 1.399 | Charlton attack 0.863 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Charlton kick off?
Gillingham vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Charlton?
Gillingham 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Gillingham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Charlton part of?
Gillingham vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 36% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gillingham and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gillingham and Charlton in?
Gillingham (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.95x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.86x) against Gillingham's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
36%
2.81
25%
3.93
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.76
1.42
Charlton xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.42 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Gillingham have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 1W 1D 5L from 7 games, 0.57 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Gillingham against 0.57 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Gillingham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charlton have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charlton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gillingham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Charlton in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Charlton have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Charlton away?
Gillingham's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.33 PPG; Charlton away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gillingham
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Charlton 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Gillingham, 100% for Charlton — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Gillingham and 100% for Charlton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Gillingham's games and 100% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gillingham vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Gillingham's matches and 100% of Charlton's.
Do Gillingham and Charlton tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Charlton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gillingham and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.34 xG and Charlton 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.95 / defence 1.40 against Charlton attack 0.86 / defence 1.39, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 36% | Draw 25% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 43%, Charlton 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 0.86 PPG, Charlton 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.