Fleetwood Town 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 45%, yet in-form Derby provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fleetwood Town vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Derby travel to Highbury Stadium to take on Fleetwood Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fleetwood Town stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fleetwood Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derby — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Fleetwood Town trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Derby trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 66% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 58% | Derby 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.07 xG and Derby 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 0.861 / defence 1.027 | Derby attack 0.625 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.013. Data: 50 Fleetwood Town games / 4 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 45% | Draw 33% | Derby 22%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Derby 4.55. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Derby's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derby (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates are neutral: Fleetwood Town 70% | Derby 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 45% | Draw 33% | Derby 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.07 / Derby 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 0.861 / def 1.027 | Derby attack 0.625 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Derby xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Derby kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Fleetwood Town 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Derby part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Derby is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 45% chance of winning, Derby a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Derby in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fleetwood Town's attack rating (0.86) and Derby's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Fleetwood Town's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.5%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
45%
2.23
33%
2.99
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
1.72
0.65
Derby xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 0.65 for Derby, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fleetwood Town come into this having played 50 games, going 9W 18D 23L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.24 PPG from 50 outings (16W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fleetwood Town on 0.90 PPG, Derby on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fleetwood Town's home form reads 6W 9D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 0.64 points per game from 25 outings (3W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fleetwood Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.96 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Derby in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 9W 18D 23L in their last 50 games (0.90 PPG), while Derby have gone 16W 14D 20L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Derby away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.08 PPG; Derby away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Fleetwood Town or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fleetwood Town have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Derby in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fleetwood Town and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Fleetwood Town's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fleetwood Town
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 1, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 64%, Derby 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fleetwood Town) and 32% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Fleetwood Town's recent matches and 40% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 32% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Derby tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Derby in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fleetwood Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Fleetwood Town and Derby drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.07 xG and Derby 0.65 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fleetwood Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Derby attack 0.62 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 45% | Draw 33% | Derby 22%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 58%, Derby 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 0.90 PPG, Derby 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.