Fleetwood Town 1-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 45 as Fleetwood Town welcome AFC Wimbledon to Highbury Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fleetwood Town — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fleetwood Town's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Highbury Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Fleetwood Town) versus 0.30 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fleetwood Town, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 63% versus AFC Wimbledon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 58% | AFC Wimbledon 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 0.879 / defence 1.416 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.661 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.165. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing Fleetwood Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Fleetwood Town games / 44 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 46% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 26%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | AFC Wimbledon 3.85. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fleetwood Town are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fleetwood Town 60% | AFC Wimbledon 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 46% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.52 / AFC Wimbledon 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 0.879 / def 1.416 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.661 / def 1.547 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
1.09
AFC Wimbledon xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Fleetwood Town 1 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 46% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Fleetwood Town 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fleetwood Town's attack rating (0.88) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Fleetwood Town's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.48
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.61
1.09
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
6%
17.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.09 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fleetwood Town's recent record stands at 8W 15D 20L from 43 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 5W 18D 20L across 43 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fleetwood Town on 0.91 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fleetwood Town have managed 5W 7D 9L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 3W 4D 14L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fleetwood Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 8W 15D 20L in their last 43 games (0.91 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 5W 18D 20L in their last 43 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.05 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fleetwood Town's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fleetwood Town
3
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 0, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2025, when Fleetwood Town 0-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 62%, AFC Wimbledon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fleetwood Town) and 57% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Fleetwood Town's recent matches and 48% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fleetwood Town vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fleetwood Town's matches and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.42 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.66 / defence 1.55, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 46% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 26%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 58%, AFC Wimbledon 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 0.91 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.