Exeter City 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Exeter City at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Charlton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Exeter City host Charlton at St James Park in League One (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Exeter City — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Exeter City have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Charlton have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On current form, Exeter City have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

Charlton have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Exeter City.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Exeter City 1–1 Charlton — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Exeter City in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 40% versus Charlton 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 43% | Charlton 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.23 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.852 / defence 0.929 | Charlton attack 0.959 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.188. Data: built from Exeter City's last 58 games and Charlton's last 59.

Result probabilities: Exeter City 40% | Draw 28% | Charlton 32%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.50 | Draw 3.53 | Charlton 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Charlton have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Exeter City carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Exeter City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Exeter City's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Exeter City 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 50% (last 10 away games).

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