Exeter City 1-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Exeter City at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and Cambridge United meet at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Exeter City (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St James Park, Exeter City have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cambridge United have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Exeter City. A 1.30 PPG lead over Cambridge United (1.60 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Exeter City, 2 for Cambridge United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Exeter City — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 41% versus Cambridge United 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 44% | Cambridge United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.47 xG and Cambridge United 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.953 / defence 0.861 | Cambridge United attack 0.688 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.256. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Exeter City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Exeter City games / 54 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 54% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 18%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Cambridge United 5.56. Exeter City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 50% | Cambridge United 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 54% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Exeter City 1.47 / Cambridge United 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.953 / def 0.861 | Cambridge United attack 0.688 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cambridge United xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Cambridge United kick off?
Exeter City vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Exeter City 1 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Exeter City vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Cambridge United part of?
Exeter City vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 54% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Exeter City and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Cambridge United?
Record (4 meetings): Exeter City 1W | Draws 1 | Cambridge United 2W.
What form are Exeter City and Cambridge United in?
Exeter City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.95) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.69x) against Exeter City's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.64
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.22
0.74
Cambridge United xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
4%
23.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.74 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Exeter City come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 11D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 0.91 PPG from 54 outings (12W 13D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Exeter City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Exeter City's home form reads 9W 8D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.54 points per game from 26 outings (3W 5D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Exeter City are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.83 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Cambridge United away?
Exeter City's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.35 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Exeter City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Exeter City
1
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 3, Cambridge United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Cambridge United?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 38%, Cambridge United 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Exeter City) and 50% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 38% of games; Cambridge United in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Exeter City's recent matches and 35% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Exeter City's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Cambridge United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Cambridge United 1-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.47 xG and Cambridge United 0.74 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.95 / defence 0.86 against Cambridge United attack 0.69 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 54% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 18%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Exeter City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.