Derby 2-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Plymouth meet at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pride Park Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Derby against 1.40 for Plymouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Plymouth 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 38% | Plymouth 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.63 xG and Plymouth 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.964 / defence 0.990 | Plymouth attack 1.141 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.111. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Derby games / 52 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 28%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Plymouth 3.57. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Plymouth 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Derby 1.63 / Plymouth 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.964 / def 0.990 | Plymouth attack 1.141 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Plymouth xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Plymouth kick off?
Derby vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Plymouth?
Derby 2 - 3 Plymouth.
Where is Derby vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Plymouth part of?
Derby vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Plymouth a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Derby and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Plymouth in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Plymouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.96x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.14x) against Derby's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 6/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.72
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Derby xG
Total xG
2.88
1.25
Plymouth xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Derby and 1.25 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby's recent record stands at 17W 15D 20L from 52 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 14L across 52 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derby have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Plymouth's away record stands at 10W 7D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.50 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 17W 15D 20L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 27W 11D 14L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Plymouth away?
Derby's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.88 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Derby or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Plymouth in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
1
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Plymouth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Plymouth 2-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 58%, Plymouth 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Derby) and 50% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Derby's games and 54% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Derby's recent games and 50% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Plymouth tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Derby 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Derby 2-3 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.63 xG and Plymouth 1.25 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Plymouth attack 1.14 / defence 1.24, drawn from 6/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 28%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 38%, Plymouth 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.