Derby 0-2 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Fleetwood Town at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Derby have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fleetwood Town — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derby at 1.70 PPG versus Fleetwood Town's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Fleetwood Town 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Fleetwood Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 45% | Fleetwood Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.53 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.375 / defence 0.848 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.903 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.111. Derby carry an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Derby games / 82 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 53% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Fleetwood Town 5.00. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 30% | Fleetwood Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 53% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Derby 1.53 / Fleetwood Town 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.375 / def 0.848 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.903 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Derby (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Fleetwood Town xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Derby vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Derby 0 - 2 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Derby vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Derby vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 53% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Derby and Fleetwood Town in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.38) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.71
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Derby xG
Total xG
2.38
0.85
Fleetwood Town xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
22.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Derby and 0.85 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 32W 23D 27L from 82 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 18W 29D 35L across 82 games — 1.01 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fleetwood Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 23W 11D 7L from 41 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 8W 15D 18L across 41 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 61%.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 32W 23D 27L in their last 82 games (1.45 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 18W 29D 35L in their last 82 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Derby's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.95 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Derby or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Derby's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Fleetwood Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Fleetwood Town?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Fleetwood Town 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Derby) and 51% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Derby's games and 63% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Derby's recent games and 51% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fleetwood Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Derby 0-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.53 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.85 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Derby fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fleetwood Town outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.38 / defence 0.85 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 53% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fleetwood Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 45%, Fleetwood Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.01. Form was overturned, with Fleetwood Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.