Derby 2-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Cheltenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Cheltenham travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 February 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cheltenham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Derby, 0 for Cheltenham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 3–2 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Cheltenham trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Cheltenham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Cheltenham 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 2.11 xG and Cheltenham 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.352 / defence 0.793 | Cheltenham attack 0.842 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.101. Derby carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Derby's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Derby games / 78 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 69% | Draw 19% | Cheltenham 12%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Cheltenham 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Derby (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 30% | Cheltenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 69% | Draw 19% | Cheltenham 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Derby 2.11 / Cheltenham 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.352 / def 0.793 | Cheltenham attack 0.842 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Derby (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Cheltenham xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Cheltenham kick off?
Derby vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cheltenham?
Derby 2 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Derby vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Cheltenham part of?
Derby vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 69% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cheltenham?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Derby and Cheltenham in?
Derby (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Cheltenham (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.35x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.27
12%
8.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Derby xG
Total xG
2.85
0.73
Cheltenham xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
8.50
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
70.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Derby and 0.73 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cheltenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 78 outings, Derby have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 30W 22D 26L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Cheltenham's form line: 22W 23D 33L from 78 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.44 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.95 PPG from 39 outings (22W 10D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 7W 12D 20L from 39 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.17 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 30W 22D 26L in their last 78 games (1.44 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 22W 23D 33L in their last 78 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cheltenham away?
Derby's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.95 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Derby or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Cheltenham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Derby 2-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cheltenham?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Cheltenham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Derby) and 54% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cheltenham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 54% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Derby's recent games and 54% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cheltenham 2-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 2.11 xG and Cheltenham 0.73 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.35 / defence 0.79 against Cheltenham attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 69% | Draw 19% | Cheltenham 12%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Cheltenham 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cheltenham's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.44 PPG, Cheltenham 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.