Derby 1-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Cambridge United travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 December 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Cambridge United have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cambridge United in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Derby, 0 for Cambridge United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 47% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Cambridge United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.84 xG and Cambridge United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.145 / defence 0.967 | Cambridge United attack 0.952 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.092. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Derby games / 68 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 57% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Cambridge United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Derby (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Cambridge United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 57% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Derby 1.84 / Cambridge United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.145 / def 0.967 | Cambridge United attack 0.952 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Derby (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Cambridge United xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Cambridge United kick off?
Derby vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cambridge United?
Derby 1 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Derby vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Cambridge United part of?
Derby vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 57% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Derby and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Derby and Cambridge United in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.15x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.29
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Derby xG
Total xG
2.85
1.00
Cambridge United xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
31.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Derby and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Derby and 1.00 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby's recent record stands at 23W 21D 24L from 68 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 30L across 68 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.32 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derby have managed 17W 9D 7L from 33 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 9W 6D 18L across 33 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.13 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 23W 21D 24L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 22W 16D 30L in their last 68 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cambridge United away?
Derby's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.82 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Derby or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Cambridge United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Cambridge United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Cambridge United 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cambridge United?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 58%, Cambridge United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 61% (Cambridge United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Cambridge United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Derby's games and 61% of Cambridge United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Derby's matches and 61% of Cambridge United's.
Do Derby and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Cambridge United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cambridge United 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.84 xG and Cambridge United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cambridge United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against Cambridge United attack 0.95 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 57% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Cambridge United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.32 PPG, Cambridge United 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.