Crewe 0-4 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 38%, yet in-form Sunderland provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crewe vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sunderland travel to Mornflake Stadium to take on Crewe. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 October 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 1W 2D 2L at Mornflake Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Sunderland have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sunderland are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crewe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sunderland in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Sunderland trading profile (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 46% versus Sunderland 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 27% | Sunderland 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.37 xG and Sunderland 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.850 / defence 1.243 | Sunderland attack 0.831 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.292. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Crewe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Crewe games / 11 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 38% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 36%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 60% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 38% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Crewe 1.37 / Sunderland 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.850 / def 1.243 | Sunderland attack 0.831 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Crewe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sunderland xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Sunderland kick off?
Crewe vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Sunderland?
Crewe 0 - 4 Sunderland.
Where is Crewe vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Sunderland part of?
Crewe vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 38% chance of winning, Sunderland a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crewe and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crewe and Sunderland in?
Crewe (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crewe's attack rating (0.85) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.88
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.71
1.33
Sunderland xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Crewe and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Crewe and 1.33 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crewe come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 4D 6L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.63 PPG clear of Crewe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Crewe's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.82 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 11 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Sunderland away?
Crewe's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.00 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crewe
0
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Crewe have won 0, Sunderland have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Sunderland 2-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 50%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Crewe and 75% for Sunderland. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crewe's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Crewe's matches and 75% of Sunderland's.
Do Crewe and Sunderland tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Crewe 0-4 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.37 xG and Sunderland 1.33 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Crewe fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Sunderland attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 38% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 36%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 27%, Sunderland 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.