Crewe 1-4 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crewe and Plymouth meet at Mornflake Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crewe have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Mornflake Stadium, Crewe have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Plymouth (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Crewe — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 46% versus Plymouth 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 39% | Plymouth 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.18 xG and Plymouth 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.779 / defence 1.237 | Plymouth attack 1.202 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.271. Crewe's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Crewe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Crewe games / 28 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 23% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 54%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Plymouth 1.85. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 40% | Plymouth 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 23% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Crewe 1.18 / Plymouth 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.779 / def 1.237 | Plymouth attack 1.202 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Plymouth xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Plymouth kick off?
Crewe vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Plymouth?
Crewe 1 - 4 Plymouth.
Where is Crewe vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Plymouth part of?
Crewe vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 23% chance of winning, Plymouth a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Crewe and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Crewe 0W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Crewe and Plymouth in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crewe's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.20x) against Crewe's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
23%
4.28
23%
4.40
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Crewe xG
Total xG
3.06
1.89
Plymouth xG
4.28
23%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
4%
28.34
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Crewe and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Crewe and 1.89 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Crewe have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 5W 6D 17L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 13W 8D 7L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 5W 5D 3L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crewe are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.68 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth in 64%.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 5W 6D 17L in their last 28 games (0.75 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.15 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Plymouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Crewe have won 0, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2022, when Crewe 1-4 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 38%, Plymouth 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Crewe) and 62% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Crewe have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Crewe's games and 77% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crewe vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Crewe's recent games and 62% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Plymouth tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Crewe 1-4 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.18 xG and Plymouth 1.89 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 1.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.78 / defence 1.24 against Plymouth attack 1.20 / defence 1.38, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 23% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 54%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 39%, Plymouth 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Crewe (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.