Crawley Town 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet in-form Rotherham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crawley Town vs Rotherham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Rotherham at Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Crawley Town have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Crawley Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rotherham stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rotherham away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rotherham — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 54% versus Rotherham 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Rotherham 44%). Note also that Rotherham surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Crawley Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.42 xG and Rotherham 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.978 / defence 1.485 | Rotherham attack 0.749 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.120. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.485 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rotherham's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 16 games and Rotherham's last 15.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Rotherham 33%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.47 | Draw 3.72 | Rotherham 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rotherham (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, matchday 17 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Rotherham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Crawley Town 1.42 / Rotherham 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.978 / def 1.485 | Rotherham attack 0.749 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Rotherham xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Rotherham FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Rotherham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Crawley Town 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Rotherham part of?
Crawley Town vs Rotherham is a League One fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Rotherham a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and Rotherham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.98) and Rotherham's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 16 games and Rotherham's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.72
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.66
1.25
Rotherham xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Rotherham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.25 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 25W 10D 26L from 61 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 9W 17D 35L across 61 games — 0.72 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crawley Town by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rotherham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 13W 5D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 1W 7D 22L across their last 30 away games, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 0.84 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Rotherham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Rotherham Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 25W 10D 26L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 9W 17D 35L in their last 61 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Rotherham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.47 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
0
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Rotherham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rotherham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 2, Rotherham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Rotherham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Rotherham 0-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Rotherham?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Rotherham 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Crawley Town) and 47% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Rotherham in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Rotherham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Rotherham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 37% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Rotherham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Crawley Town's recent games and 47% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Rotherham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 67% of Rotherham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Rotherham 1-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.42 xG and Rotherham 1.25 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.49 against Rotherham attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Rotherham 33%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Rotherham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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