Crawley Town 3-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lincoln travel to Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town in League One (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crawley Town stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Crawley Town have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Crawley Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lincoln away from home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lincoln — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lincoln trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Lincoln 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Lincoln 41%). Note also that Lincoln surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Crawley Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.79 xG and Lincoln 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.788 / defence 1.533 | Lincoln attack 1.089 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.252. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Lincoln bring a tight defence (rating 0.761, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Crawley Town's projected output down. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.533 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lincoln's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 11 games and Lincoln's last 56.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 13% | Draw 20% | Lincoln 67%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 7.66 | Draw 5.13 | Lincoln 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 13 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 13% | Draw 20% | Lincoln 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Crawley Town 0.79 / Lincoln 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.788 / def 1.533 | Lincoln attack 1.089 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Lincoln xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Lincoln kick off?
Crawley Town vs Lincoln kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Lincoln?
Crawley Town 3 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Crawley Town vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Lincoln part of?
Crawley Town vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 13% chance of winning, Lincoln a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crawley Town and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Crawley Town vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.79) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 11 games and Lincoln's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
13%
7.66
20%
5.13
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.88
2.09
Lincoln xG
7.66
13%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
2%
61.95
31%
3.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Crawley Town and 2.09 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town come into this having played 56 games, going 24W 7D 25L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.64 PPG from 56 outings (25W 17D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.41 PPG, Lincoln on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crawley Town's home form reads 12W 4D 12L across their last 28 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.71 points per game from their last 28 away games (13W 9D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.45 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 24W 7D 25L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 25W 17D 14L in their last 56 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.43 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Lincoln in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Lincoln?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 1, Lincoln have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2025: Lincoln 4-1 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Lincoln 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Crawley Town) and 32% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Lincoln matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 50% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Crawley Town's recent games and 32% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 61% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Crawley Town run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lincoln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Lincoln 3-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.79 xG and Lincoln 2.09 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lincoln landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.53 against Lincoln attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 11/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 13% | Draw 20% | Lincoln 67%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Lincoln 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Lincoln's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.41 PPG, Lincoln 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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