Cheltenham 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derby travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham in League One (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Cheltenham — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cheltenham at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Cheltenham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Derby have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derby's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 1.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cheltenham, 2 for Derby and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Feb 2023, ended Cheltenham 0–2 Derby — a Derby win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Derby in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 29% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 41% | Derby 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.67 xG and Derby 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.589 / defence 1.334 | Derby attack 1.516 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.126. Cheltenham's attack rating of 0.589 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.516, which lifts their away xG to 2.28. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 57 games and Derby's last 56.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 9% | Draw 17% | Derby 74%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 11.05 | Draw 5.73 | Derby 1.36. The model has a clear lean to Derby (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 40% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Derby | Competition: League One, matchday 12 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 9% | Draw 17% | Derby 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Cheltenham 0.67 / Derby 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.589 / def 1.334 | Derby attack 1.516 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Derby (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Derby xG
44%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Derby FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Derby kick off?
Cheltenham vs Derby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Derby?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Cheltenham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Derby part of?
Cheltenham vs Derby is a League One fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 9% chance of winning, Derby a 74% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cheltenham and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Cheltenham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.59) and Derby's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 2.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 57 games and Derby's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-3 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
9%
11.05
17%
5.73
74%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
0 – 3
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.95
2.28
Derby xG
11.05
9%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
1.36
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
10%
9.75
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
1%
107.71
38%
2.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Cheltenham and 2.28 for Derby, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 14W 13D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 26W 15D 15L from 56 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 27 home games (8W 8D 11L).
On the road, Derby have gone 12W 7D 8L from their last 27 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cheltenham are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Derby in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Derby
Blended
Cheltenham (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Cheltenham vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Derby in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 14W 13D 29L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Derby have gone 26W 15D 15L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.19 PPG; Derby away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Derby in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cheltenham's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Derby?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Derby 2-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 33%, Derby 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cheltenham) and 48% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Derby in 33%; Cheltenham have failed to score in 48% of games; Derby in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 52% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cheltenham and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cheltenham's recent games and 48% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 67% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Cheltenham and Derby drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.67 xG and Derby 2.28 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Derby landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.59 / defence 1.33 against Derby attack 1.52 / defence 0.91, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 9% | Draw 17% | Derby 74%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 41%, Derby 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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