Cheltenham 1-2 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cheltenham at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 36 as Cheltenham welcome Crewe to Jonny-Rocks Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cheltenham — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cheltenham at Jonny-Rocks Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 League One matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crewe's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Cheltenham have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cheltenham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crewe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cheltenham, 0 for Crewe and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Crewe in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 64% versus Crewe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 48% | Crewe 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.54 xG and Crewe 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.880 / defence 1.129 | Crewe attack 0.586 / defence 1.586. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.227. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.586 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Cheltenham games / 33 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 54% | Draw 27% | Crewe 19%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Crewe 5.26. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cheltenham 60% | Crewe 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Crewe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 54% | Draw 27% | Crewe 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Cheltenham 1.54 / Crewe 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.880 / def 1.129 | Crewe attack 0.586 / def 1.586 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Crewe xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Crewe kick off?
Cheltenham vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Cheltenham 1 - 2 Crewe.
Where is Cheltenham vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Crewe part of?
Cheltenham vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 54% chance of winning, Crewe a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cheltenham and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Crewe?
Record (1 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 1 | Crewe 0W.
What form are Cheltenham and Crewe in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Crewe (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 0.88x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.69
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.35
0.81
Crewe xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
24.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.81 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 9W 14D 10L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Crewe's form line: 5W 7D 21L from 33 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Cheltenham are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 1W 3D 13L from 17 away games — 0.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.79 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Crewe in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 9W 14D 10L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Crewe have gone 5W 7D 21L in their last 33 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Crewe away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.59 PPG; Crewe away: 0.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jan 2026, when Crewe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Crewe?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 2, Crewe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Cheltenham 1-1 Crewe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 59%, Crewe 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cheltenham) and 41% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crewe in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Cheltenham's games and 53% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cheltenham's recent games and 41% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Crewe tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Crewe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Cheltenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Cheltenham 1-2 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.54 xG and Crewe 0.81 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Crewe attack 0.59 / defence 1.59, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 54% | Draw 27% | Crewe 19%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Crewe 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cheltenham arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Crewe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.