Cheltenham 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jonny-Rocks Stadium plays host to Cheltenham versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 8 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Cheltenham (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Cheltenham have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.20 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cheltenham 0W, Burton Albion 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 65% versus Burton Albion 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 56% | Burton Albion 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.24 xG and Burton Albion 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.868 / defence 1.446 | Burton Albion attack 0.577 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.277. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Cheltenham games / 23 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 40% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 31%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Burton Albion 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 50% | Burton Albion 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 40% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Cheltenham 1.24 / Burton Albion 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.868 / def 1.446 | Burton Albion attack 0.577 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Burton Albion xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Burton Albion kick off?
Cheltenham vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Cheltenham vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Burton Albion part of?
Cheltenham vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 40% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cheltenham and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Cheltenham and Burton Albion in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cheltenham's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.58x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.45
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.31
1.07
Burton Albion xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.07 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 7D 9L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.35 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cheltenham's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Cheltenham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.22 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Burton Albion away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.64 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cheltenham
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 1, Burton Albion have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2024, when Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 54%, Burton Albion 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cheltenham) and 36% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 27% of games; Burton Albion in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 36% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cheltenham's recent games and 36% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham and Burton Albion finished level at 1-1 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.24 xG and Burton Albion 1.07 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.87 / defence 1.45 against Burton Albion attack 0.58 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 40% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 31%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 56%, Burton Albion 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.22 PPG, Burton Albion 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.