Charlton 2-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wigan make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Charlton have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wigan (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Wigan have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Charlton's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) — Charlton have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Wigan in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Charlton, 2 for Wigan and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Charlton 1–0 Wigan — a Charlton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 60% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Wigan 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.99 xG and Wigan 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.069 / defence 0.669 | Wigan attack 0.795 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.110. Wigan bring a tight defence (rating 0.748, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Charlton's projected output down. Wigan's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Charlton have a tight defence (rating 0.669), which is pulling Wigan's projected output down. Data: built from Charlton's last 82 games and Wigan's last 81.
Result probabilities: Charlton 44% | Draw 35% | Wigan 21%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.28 | Draw 2.85 | Wigan 4.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Wigan's lower xG of 0.59 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 79% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 30% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 37 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 44% | Draw 35% | Wigan 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% (Under 79%) | BTTS Yes 28% (No 72%) | xG Charlton 0.99 / Wigan 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.069 / def 0.669 | Wigan attack 0.795 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Charlton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Wigan xG
28%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Wigan kick off?
Charlton vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Wigan?
Charlton 2 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Charlton vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Wigan part of?
Charlton vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 44% chance of winning, Wigan a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Charlton and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (72%).
Will Charlton vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (79%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.07x the league average against Wigan's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (0.80x) against Charlton's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 82 games and Wigan's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.8%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
44%
2.28
35%
2.85
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.58
0.59
Wigan xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.53
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.6 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Charlton and 0.59 for Wigan, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton come into this having played 81 games, going 28W 29D 24L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.40 PPG from 81 outings (31W 20D 30L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Charlton against 1.40 for Wigan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charlton's home form reads 18W 13D 9L across their last 40 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 40 away games (12W 12D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.17 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wigan in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Wigan in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 28W 29D 24L in their last 81 games (1.40 PPG), while Wigan have gone 31W 20D 30L in their last 81 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Wigan away?
Charlton's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.68 PPG; Wigan away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Charlton or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Wigan in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Charlton and Wigan, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Charlton have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charlton
1
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wigan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 3, Wigan have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charlton and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Charlton 2-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Wigan?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 62%, Wigan 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Charlton) and 45% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wigan in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Wigan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Charlton's games and 55% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Charlton's recent games and 45% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Charlton's recent matches and 80% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Wigan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Wigan 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.99 xG and Wigan 0.59 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.07 / defence 0.67 against Wigan attack 0.80 / defence 0.75, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 44% | Draw 35% | Wigan 21%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Wigan 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.40 PPG, Wigan 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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