Charlton 2-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charlton face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wigan make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One (matchday 40). The match kicks off on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Charlton have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Wigan (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Wigan have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Charlton, 1.50 for Wigan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Charlton's games and 70% of Wigan's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Charlton, 2 for Wigan and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2023, ended Charlton 3–2 Wigan — a Charlton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 67% and Wigan 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 52% | Wigan 40%). Note also that Wigan surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Charlton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.89 xG and Wigan 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.019 / defence 1.008 | Wigan attack 0.949 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.173. Wigan's defence rating of 1.413 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Charlton's last 88 games and Wigan's last 42.
Result probabilities: Charlton 55% | Draw 23% | Wigan 22%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.81 | Draw 4.43 | Wigan 4.49. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 40 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 55% | Draw 23% | Wigan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Charlton 1.89 / Wigan 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.019 / def 1.008 | Wigan attack 0.949 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Charlton (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Wigan xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Wigan kick off?
Charlton vs Wigan kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Wigan?
Charlton 2 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Charlton vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Wigan part of?
Charlton vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 55% chance of winning, Wigan a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Charlton and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charlton vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.02x the league average against Wigan's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (0.95x) against Charlton's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 88 games and Wigan's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.43
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.01
1.12
Wigan xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Charlton and 1.12 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton come into this having played 88 games, going 27W 31D 30L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.19 PPG from 88 outings (27W 24D 37L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Charlton against 1.19 for Wigan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charlton's home form reads 16W 13D 14L across their last 43 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 43 away games (10W 13D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.06 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Wigan in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 27W 31D 30L in their last 88 games (1.27 PPG), while Wigan have gone 27W 24D 37L in their last 88 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Wigan away?
Charlton's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.42 PPG; Wigan away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Charlton and Wigan, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Charlton have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charlton
1
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wigan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 3, Wigan have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charlton and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Charlton 2-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Wigan?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Charlton, 65% for Wigan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charlton) and 44% (Wigan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Wigan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Charlton's games and 65% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Charlton's recent games and 44% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Charlton's recent matches and 84% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Wigan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Wigan finished level at 2-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.89 xG and Wigan 1.12 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Wigan attack 0.95 / defence 1.41, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 55% | Draw 23% | Wigan 22%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 52%, Wigan 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.27 PPG, Wigan 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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