Charlton 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Charlton at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A League One encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Stockport County travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charlton at The Valley this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stockport County's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.60 PPG, Stockport County 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stockport County in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

In-Play Data

Charlton trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Stockport County trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 67% and Stockport County 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Stockport County 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.04 xG and Stockport County 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.934 / defence 0.786 | Stockport County attack 0.951 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.252. Charlton's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Charlton games / 9 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 32%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 60% | Stockport County 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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